How to Manage Uncertainty When It’s All Around You

In times like this, it can be challenging to stay calm, focused, and productive. But, when we understand the reasons behind mass toilet paper purchasing and the like, we can see more clearly, and overcome the irrationalities within ourselves and others to continue working towards meaningful things.

During uncertainty, shortcuts in thinking and group behavior take ahold of us. We succumb and become subject to the event, letting it get the best of us. But, it doesn’t need to be this way; or at least, completely this way.

In this article, I want to share some common traps we fall into that cage our thinking when we’re in the unknown and share some tactics that we can use to see a little more clearly.

Using the wrong, or slightly incorrect information

In an article written in 1974, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman explain a few instincts and impulses that cloud our judgment during uncertainty. Specifically, they identified three biases that are seemingly prevalent in current time — anchoring, adjustment, and availability. Together, these three lead us to strongly hold positions, overgeneralize, and seek convenient narratives. Let’s walk through each one to get a better idea of what they are and how we can overcome them.

Anchoring and adjustment — Tell someone that the probability of a situation occurring is 5%, and all their future judgments will be based on that figure. By presenting a figure, a concept, or almost anything else tangible, the person will ‘anchor’ to the idea. The next time you speak to the idea, the person will be subconsciously so affected by the anchor, that the conversation about the idea will be rooted in an unintended pillar.

Anchoring is most familiar as a negotiating tactic, but not usually the high-risk type, rather the bazaar-like bargaining type. And though bargaining is a simple activity we’ve all engaged in, there are many other anchors in your life.

Unknown to you these anchors pull you in many directions. A lot of these anchors are internally generated, but many are externally provided. The agendas of the people or organizations providing anchors might not be clear immediately, but if you think about the narrative they’re selling, you may be able to uproot their anchor and make your own independent decision.

Availability — Sometimes our innate laziness gets the best of us. As humans in a complex world, we’re forced to constantly analyze inputs and reach conclusions so we can continue with our day. So much so, we gravitate to information that’s closest to us. By doing this, we’re succumbing to ‘availability’ bias, or what I like to call ‘a convenient narrative.’

By sacrificing quality for convenience, we’re taking a chance that the information we’re consuming has the same value as the information that may have been more challenging to find. That’s not to say that information that served on a silver platter is bad, it’s to say that what’s most convenient is not always good for you.

To combat the availability bias try to cross-check information at least one more time. On certain occasions, this may be hard as the initial data set itself took time to discover, but verifying is the difference between moving in the right and wrong direction. If you can’t cross-check, question the sources — i.e who gave you the information, is the information being published easily accessible? In our unfortunate times, a lot of publishers have agendas, and some of them have a lot of money. Be wary and skeptical when consuming information until it’s been validated by objective third-parties.

Information wrangling and management on your own is just one part of assessing the situation properly. But, what happens when the people around you begin acting suspiciously?

Following people to the wrong aisles

We’ve all heard of herd mentality and groupthink, but in times of uncertainty, a more dangerous type of group behavior begins to sprout — Mass Hysteria. Though a known concept, according to Medical News Today, the term isn’t as easy to define as we hoped:

To provide a clearer definition of mass hysteria, to outline it as an event of potential clinical interest, and to distance it from any unduly negative connotations, researchers have advised referring to the phenomenon as “collective obsessional behavior.”

Building on that article, the academic paper — Mass Hysteria: Two Syndromes, posits that the concept can be broken down further into two types of hysteria — Mass Anxiety Hysteria and Mass Motor Hysteria. The former is much more relevant to us today per the definition — Mass Anxiety Hysteria is characterized as when there is no prior tension and hysteria is spread by mere observation of certain behavior.

What this means is that when we see others acting irrationally, and we’re in a state of anxiety ourselves, we begin to act irrationally as well. The keyword here is seeing. The simple act of just seeing mobs of people acting in one way can lead a normally sensible person to begin acting unexpectedly.

Defending against this is not as easy as it looks. At times, following people makes a lot of sense. For example, when there’s a fire. But, in others, it doesn’t.

There are myriads of scenarios to exemplify this, but one of my favorites is the most recent toilet paper purchasing binge. I’m still confused as to where the craze started, but it’s a great example of Mass Anxiety Hysteria. The binge fits the definition almost perfectly — no historical precedent of a rapid decline in toilet paper production during uncertain times + many of our close colleagues buying unreasonable amounts of toilet paper.

In uncertain times, simply knowing that seeing something can affect your behavior, is a great first step in avoiding irrational purchases, decisions, or judgments. Instead of being driven by your eyes, be contrarian and take what you think might be the most logical approach.

For example, in the case of the great toilet paper rush, use this handy calculator to determine if you need to join in on the frenzy or not. More than likely, you won’t have to.

Conclusion

Hysteria, innate biases, and herd mentality are hard to fight. But similar to most of our behavior, it makes sense why they exist. Externally, the world is complex, so we’ve always sought ways to make our environment simpler. Internally, we’re wired to want to belong. We conform easily, even against our own best interests.

With all this mind internal and external lenses in mind, along with biases and hysteria studies, managing uncertainty in unfamiliar times ultimately requires some self-awareness. Now that you’re aware of some of the reasons behind irrationality during uncertainty, you should be a little more prepared than you were. It’s always difficult to eradicate something, so don’t be concerned as you slip up, but keep some of these thoughts in mind the next time you think it’s smart to buy a 24 roll package of Charmin.